We live in a world where our civilization and daily lives depend upon institutions, infrastructure, and technological substrates that are _complicated_ but not _unknowable_. Join Patrick McKenzie (patio11) as he discusses how decisions, technology, culture, and incentives shape our finance, technology, government, and more, with the people who built (and build) those Complex Systems.
By popular demand, Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Byrne Hobart for a 3rd conversation to discuss Byrne’s book “Boom: Bubbles and the End of Stagnation.” They explore how periods of irrational market enthusiasm often create lasting value despite their painful endings. Using examples from the 1990s fiber optic boom that enabled modern streaming to today’s AI investment surge, they examine how even when investment manias end badly, they frequently pull forward crucial technological development that benefits society long-term. Byrne and Patrick weave through historical cases like Bell Labs to present day examples in crypto and energy infrastructure, revealing hidden cycles where speculative excess can drive genuine innovation.
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Full transcript available here: https://www.complexsystemspodcast.com/episodes/boom-busts-and-long-term-progress-with-byrne-hobart-2/
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Sponsor: Check
Check is the leading payroll infrastructure provider and pioneer of embedded payroll. Check makes it easy for any SaaS platform to build a payroll business, and already powers 60+ popular platforms. Head to checkhq.com/complex and tell them patio11 sent you.
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Links:
- Order Byrne Hobart’s book Boom: Bubbles and the End of Stagnation on Stripe Press / Bookshop / Amazon here: https://press.stripe.com/boom
- The Diff
- Capital Gains
- The Reckoning by David Halberstam: https://www.amazon.com/Reckoning-David-Halberstam/dp/0380721473
- Austin Vernon on Fracking, Complex Systems Podcast: https://open.spotify.com/episode/0YDV1XyjUCM2RtuTcBGYH9?si=CDrPD3nNSP-MUV60qffglg
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Twitter:
@byrnehobart
@patio11
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Intro
(00:25) Discussing the book: Boom, Bubbles, and the End of Stagnation
(01:08) Economic growth and productivity
(04:42) Technological advancements and corporate R&D
(07:31) The role of government and private sector
(13:42) Sponsor: Check
(14:57) Economic history and industrial evolution
(20:12) Japanese industrial planning and efficiency
(27:16) The dot-com boom and fiber optic investment
(31:21) Bondholders vs. equity investors: A comparative analysis
(32:32) Google’s strategic fiber investments
(32:56) The evolution of online video and YouTube’s rise
(35:22) The dot-com bubble and its aftermath
(44:06) The housing bubble
(49:39) Financial manias and reflexivity
(52:23) The SaaS ecosystem and startup growth
(54:58) Stripe and the evolution of online payments
(01:00:22) Crypto
(01:04:58) The value of currency and crypto
(01:06:36) Exchange tokens and financial models
(01:08:55) Crypto’s impact on financial systems
(01:10:41) The evolution of banking technology
(01:13:18) Crypto regulations and financial freedom
(01:17:28) Smart contracts and financial innovation
(01:26:47) The role of AI in technological advancements
(01:29:18) The future of energy: Geothermal and fracking
(01:41:39) The journey of writing ‘Boom’
(01:42:57) Wrap
The official podcast of the Santa Fe Institute. Subscribe now and be part of the exploration!
Guests:
- Erica Cartmill, Professor, Anthropology and Cognitive Science, Indiana University Bloomington
- Ellie Pavlick, Assistant Professor, Computer Science and Linguistics, Brown University
Hosts: Abha Eli Phoboo & Melanie Mitchell
Producer: Katherine Moncure
Podcast theme music by: Mitch Mignano
Follow us on:
Twitter • YouTube • Facebook • Instagram • LinkedIn • Bluesky
More info:
- Tutorial: Fundamentals of Machine Learning
- Lecture: Artificial Intelligence
- SFI programs: Education
- Diverse Intelligences Summer Institute
Books:
- Artificial Intelligence: A Guide for Thinking Humans by Melanie Mitchell
Talks:
- How do we know what an animal understands by Erica Cartmill
- The Future of Artificial Intelligence by Melanie Mitchell
Papers & Articles:
- “Just kidding: the evolutionary roots of playful teasing,” in Biology Letters (September 23, 2020), doi.org/10.1098/rsbl.2020.0370
- “Overcoming bias in the comparison of human language and animal communication,” in PNAS (November 13, 2023), doi.org/10.1073/pnas.22187991
- “Using the senses in animal communication,” by Erica Cartmill, in A New Companion to Linguistic Anthropology, Chapter 20, Wiley Online Library (March 21, 2023)
- “Symbols and grounding in large language models,” in Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A (June 5, 2023), doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2022.0041
- “Emergence of abstract state representations in embodied sequence modeling,” in arXiv (November 7, 2023), doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2311.02171
- “How do we know how smart AI systems are,” in Science (July 13, 2023), doi: 10.1126/science.adj59
Discussions about philosophy, psychology, and sociology through the lens of systems thinking.
What we repeat, and what we hear repeatedly, we internalize. Slogans and jingles become ingrained in our psyche, for good or for ill. How are you using or being used by this powerful mechanism? Sam and Vox explore it.
Explore the myths, mysteries, and medical breakthroughs of the most complex and powerful organ in your body – your brain. Weaving together expert interviews with heartfelt, inspiring snapshots of the patients and family members in the middle of it all, Heather Sherman dives into the latest science on Alzheimer’s, Parkinson’s, epilepsy, stroke, concussion, spinal cord injury, brain cancer, chronic pain and other brain diseases and disorders. Along the way she uncovers surprising insights, sheds light on the latest research, and shares heroic, real life stories from the people on the front lines. Brought to you by Krembil Brain Institute at UHN, one of the largest and most comprehensive neurological centres in North America. Learn more about our mission at: http://www.uhn.ca/krembil
In this bonus episode, we share Adriana Salazar's powerful and emotional journey. Adriana, a 40-year-old mother and wife, first experienced the pain on her honeymoon in Portugal. The pain disappeared but returned during her pregnancy, escalating to a point where she couldn't smile or eat. Despite seeing multiple specialists, she received her diagnosis only after her daughter's birth.
After undergoing microvascular decompression surgery, Adriana finally found relief. Her journey from debilitating pain and struggles with misdiagnoses to reclaiming her life highlights the resilience and strength of those battling trigeminal neuralgia.
Additional Resources
Dr. Hodaie was interviewed on Season 1 of Your Complex Brain – ”The most painful brain disease you've never heard of”
Toronto neurosurgeon marks 1,000th operation treating 'excruciating' facial pain syndrome (CBC story)
Dr. Hodaie recounts her journey from new immigrant to neurosurgeon (video)
Brain Aging in Fast Forward (UHN Research article)
Dr. Hodaie was a featured speaker at KBI's first-ever 'International Day of Women and Girls in Science' event (video)
The Your Complex Brain production team is Heather Sherman, Jessica Schmidt, Dr. Amy Ma, Kim Perry, Alley Wilson, Sara Yuan, Meagan Anderi, Liz Chapman, and Lorna Gilfedder.
The Krembil Brain Institute, part of University Health Network, in Toronto, is home to one of the world's largest and most comprehensive teams of physicians and scientists uniquely working hand-in-hand to prevent and confront problems of the brain and spine, such as Parkinson's, Alzheimer's, epilepsy, stroke, spinal cord injury, chronic pain, brain cancer or concussion, in their lifetime. Through state-of-the-art patient care and advanced research, we are working relentlessly toward finding new treatments and cures.
Do you want to know more about the Krembil Brain Institute at UHN? Visit us at: uhn.ca/krembil
To get in touch, email us at krembil@uhn.ca or message us on social media:
Instagram – @krembilresearch
Twitter – @KBI_UHN
Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/KrembilBrainInstitute
Thanks for listening!